The news on Tariffs on Wednesday after the close was obviously very impactful. A couple of thoughts…. Firstly, in my opinion no “expert” can really offer more than an incomplete knowledge conjecture on how this will turn out. These major historic policy decisions almost always are accompanied by the “law of unintended consequences” — for better or worse. Secondly, whatever expertise I bring certainly doesn’t qualify me to have much of an opinion at all on macro economic factors as complex as this.

What I can only offer is to tell you how it looks to me from the charts and my technical strategies, and how it “feels” to me based on my experiences with markets. As I alluded to above this is a pretty complex issue with tariffs. I am leaning toward the market “waiting and seeing” rather than a rush to the exits. Hence in my best guess the worst is behind us for now in the stock market. The market has either already formed, or will form shortly at least an intermediate term low. So look for a rally on Thursday or Friday. Could be very uneven, but my best guess is we end the week higher than we were on Wednesday after hours trading (SPY 547 this writing).

My positions are all onside. That is solely due to how spreads we legged into. Should be a rewarding couple of days into OPEX. 

Thanks,

Joe

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