I do not expect any immediate reversal of the strong post election rally. At the same time, I do think this is the last stock market rally before a larger, deeper correction. As I have noted before we have had only one down month in the last year and November is thus far extending that streak. That in itself is not a reason to be bearish, and certainly not a reason to be short. It is though a reason to remind that nothing moves in straight lines, and the market is precariously positioned for mean revision. So I do think this euphoria will turn out poorly for long chasing this rally.

Let us also remember that both of the last two quarters had more disappointments on earnings than has occurred since Covid. It is one thing for stocks to rally on strong earnings and forward guidance, it is more foolish to rally when earnings and guidance are not great, and the market is already extended and in need of a breather. So I am not participating. I am holding CVX Chevron long and XHB home builders ETF short both in profits. My TLT long position, though 8 or 9 months out, is still in bad shape. Overall, I think the prudent thing is to wait out the current dangerous euphoria on the sidelines. 

Thanks,

Joe