S&P is Pancake Flat

Thursday, October 14th, 2021

Happy Thriving Thursday!

Last week, the market was up 3 days out of 5 trading days. And, then this week started with a down day on Monday and up on Tuesday. The swings have been wild and the end result is the SPY has gone flat for the last 4 weeks. Check out the flat line on the chart below.

Am going to call Thursday “SPY Day”. Each Thursday, I will focus on what SPY is doing, with the hope it will help give us a clue about the market’s upcoming moves.

SPY or the SPDR S&P 500 trust is an exchange-traded fund which trades on the NYSE Arca under the symbol SPY. SPDR is an acronym for the Standard & Poor’s Depositary Receipts, the former name of the ETF. It is designed to track the S&P 500 stock market index. This fund is the largest ETF in the world and gives a good overall picture of the market. SPY includes shares from the top 500 companies.

The chart of the S&P below is a weekly chart with a TSI indicator at the bottom. The description coming up next explains how to use the TSI.

True Strength Indicator

The True Strength Index (TSI) is an oscillator that fluctuates between positive and negative territory. As with many momentum oscillators, the centerline defines the overall bias. The bulls have the momentum edge when TSI is positive, and the bears have the edge when it’s negative. As with MACD, a signal line can be applied to identify upturns and downturns. Signal line crossovers are, however, quite frequent and require further filtering with other techniques. Chartists can also look for bullish and bearish divergences to anticipate trend reversals; however, keep in mind that divergences can be misleading in a strong trend.

TSI is somewhat unique because it tracks the underlying price quite well. In other words, the oscillator can capture a sustained move in one direction or the other. The peaks and troughs in the oscillator often match the peaks and troughs in price. In this regard, chartists can draw trend lines and mark support/resistance levels using TSI. Line breaks as well as line crosses can then be used to generate signals.

Plain and Simple

On the line indicator at the bottom of the chart, look how the black line dipped down and now crossed down below the red line. It could continue down. The last TSI cross was in February 2020 with Covid, so a breach is meaningful. The candles furthest to the right are the most recent weeks’ candles. This week’s candle is still red as I type and is sitting right on the line. There is a real question whether this line of support will hold (floor) or if a bigger drop is yet ahead. TSI suggests there is still more of a correction ahead and this week’s bearishness suggest the bigger drop may still happen.

TSI Buy Signal

Each candle on the chart represents price movement over one day. For months, the SPY has broken out and has been moving up. The TSI line dug into its signal line and has now created white space between the lines, dropping well below so we are going to discuss another Put trade if the candle drops below the line and drops below 430. Up and down swings re frustrating and result in losing trades.

It needs to push downward further as the TSI line drops further below its signal line. If the drop continues, price will drop and perhaps, take the market into a correction.

Below I will discuss how things can be traded if the SPY continues to down.

Check out the profit potential of option trading versus buying stock. Big difference!!!

SPY is a well-rounded ETF, offering exposure to the price moves of 500 equities. Options Trade Both Directions (depending on what happens)

To buy shares of SPY today would cost approximately $434 per share (as I write this on Tuesday), but I am suggesting that it may drop more. It has swung back and forth. Make sure it drops below 430 before considering a Put trade which profits from a fall in price. If it doesn’t drop below 430, then pass on a trade this week until a firm direction is decided upon.

Option trading offers the potential of a lower initial investment and higher percentage gain. Let’s take a look and compare.

You can buy call options if you expect price to go up and put options if you feel price is going to drop.

If you bought 2 shares of SPY at $430, you would invest a total of $860. Now if SPY were to remain above $430 and say, moves higher to 440 again, it would profit approximately $10 per share or $20 for the two shares or 2.3%. Not a very exciting profit.

If it drops through support at $430 to 425, you lose $5 per share or $10 for the two shares if it stopped at that level or even more if it kept dropping.

As I type this numbers are swinging up and down, so the figures below are strictly examples as I type.

Now to compare. If you bought one Put option contract covering 100 shares of stock with an Oct 29th (Oct wk 5) expiration date for the $425 strike (if price drops), the premium would be approximately $3.73 per share or $373 for the contract. If price decreased the expected $5 over the next few weeks, the option premium would increase approximately $3 to $6.73. This is a gain of $3 per share or $300 for the 100-share contract or 80% over a short period of time.

If price doesn’t drop below 430, don’t consider a Put trade.

Option trading is truly unique in its ability to give traders the opportunity to trade an equity’s price move in either direction.

These types of trades are what can bring life-changing financial gains.

I want to stress, when you trade options, you can close the trade anywhere along the line to take profit (or loss). You don’t have to wait until it hits the target or until expiration day.

You also want to wait for the indicator confirmation and don’t jump-the-gun with an early entry.

Trading options can be a win, win, win opportunity. Options often offer a smaller overall investment, covering more shares of stock and potential for greater profits.

What’s Next? I Can Hardly Wait!

Keep an eye on your inbox and I will keep sharing what I have my eye on. If you want to get deeper into how I find these winners, be sure to check out the programs in the banners in this message to learn more about options.

I love teaching and write my strategy books as clear as I write these emails. I try to think of the questions you’ll ask before you ask them. Sign up and join me in the profit potential.

Yours for a prosperous future,

Wendy Kirkland